Why have the most populated countries stopped having children?

Multiple Maternity Hospitals in China Have Announced Closures

（photo from: Agency France Presse )

On March 26, “Obstetrics and Gynecology are shutting down” became ++the third trending topic++ on Weibo. A related article shows that the number of births in 2023 has dropped by over 10 million compared to previous years, with more than 20 prominent maternity hospitals closing. So far, the topic has had 240 million views and 63,000 discussions.

This dramatic drop in birth rates is abnormally precipitous. According to ++the National Bureau of Statistics annual report++, the number of births in China for the entire year of 2023 is even fewer than it was during the Sino-Japanese War in the 1940s. In response to this decline, the government fully abandoned the “one-child policy” that had been enforced for nearly four decades, and instead launched the “separate two-child policy,” “universal two-child policy,” and “three-child policy.” However, legislative measures have not reversed the slide. So, why then aren’t people giving birth?

“I want to have three children, but I can’t afford them”

Children, besides being called gifts from heaven, are sometimes referred to as “gold eaters.” Parents need to invest in their children’s health, education, socialization, and hobbies for over a decade, which includes both money and time. So, what is the actual cost of raising a child? In China, the average cost of rearing a child between the ages of 0 and 17 is 538 thousand yuan, as reported in ++the China Fertility Cost Report for 2024++. In first-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing, the expenses approach one million yuan. The expenditure amounts to 6.3 times the GDP per capita, whereas Australia, Germany, and Japan only do so 2.08 times, 3.64 times, and 4.26 times, respectively. One could argue that the cost of child-rearing in China is the highest on a global scale.

The cost of raising children can even spiral upward. The reduction of the labor force caused by the negative population growth will raise the employment price of industries such as early childhood education, youth training, and domestic services. Meanwhile, population decline will not ease the rivalry among children in the realm of education; rather, educational resources will correspondingly shrink. For example, an excess of 1,000 primary schools and nearly 6,000 kindergartens have ceased operations as of 2023, as ++reported by the Ministry of Education++. With the diminishing educational resources, parents will invest more in their children’s education to compete for the remaining resources. The increasing cost of raising children and the decreasing resources will only make having children a luxury consumption.

Most importantly, China’s per capita income level is far from matching the cost of childbirth. The National Bureau of Statistics once released data indicating that the median per capita disposable income for residents nationwide in 2023 was 33,036 yuan. This means that the cost of childbearing is obviously far beyond the economic capacity of an ordinary family. Professor Yifu Xian from the University of Wisconsin, ++in an interview with Radio Free Asia (RFA)++, said, “The people pay taxes to support the country, but in the future, they may not even be able to afford to raise their own children. The government has a responsibility… For example, I want to have three children, but I can’t afford it… The Chinese government has a responsibility to reduce the cost of raising children, increase investment in education, and improve children’s welfare.”

“If you get pregnant, you will be replaced”

“In the golden 20 years after college, I want to focus on building my career first. Marriage and children, are too complicated,” said sociologist Xu Fang in an ++interview with RFA.++ However, why does childbirth hinder women’s career development? Perhaps, it’s because of the unequal cost of fertility between men and women.

This is primarily reflected in the inequality in policies. According to the “++Special Provisions on Labor Protection for Female Workers++“, female workers are entitled to 98 days of maternity leave, with an additional 15 days for each additional childbirth. Whether the salary is retained is not specified. For men, there are no relevant regulations for paternity leave. By comparison, Iceland and Finland have provided over one month of paid paternity leave for men, and Ireland also offers men two weeks of paid maternity leave. This seems to imply that women should sacrifice more time and energy in raising children. It’s not surprising to see such biased policies, considering that among the 31 members of the committee seen as the core of the power of the Communist Party of China, none are women.

Additionally, this inequality is acknowledged in the workplace. “She got pregnant without informing us in advance, which makes it hard to trust her,” stated a corporate representative in an interview with the ++Beijing Youth Daily++. “If you get pregnant and take maternity leave, then I certainly need to hire someone else, and you will be replaced.” Businesses are profit-driven. To avoid the decline in work efficiency due to maternity leave for women, many companies directly set conditions such as “this position is only suitable for males” during the recruitment process. Discrimination brought about by business considerations undoubtedly puts women at a disadvantage in their career development.

Since China’s founding, the government has enshrined gender equality and the protection of women’s rights in-laws. Nevertheless, faced with various realities, it inevitably raises doubts as to “where has gender equality developed in the 72 years since the nation’s inception?” According to ++the 2023 Global Gender Gap Report++, China’s ranking has dropped to 107 out of 146 countries covered in the index, compared to 69th place in 2012 when Xi Jinping took office.

“It is hard to expect a bright future for children in this country”

Third among the factors influencing childbirth is the insecurity that the dominant party creates.  Lu Jun, the founder of the public welfare organization “Beijing Yirenping Center” believes that “Repression of speech, restrictions on freedom of association, and repression of public interest attorneys have increased in recent years. A generation’s worth of political convictions have been overturned, and the populace is filled with profound insecurity… For this generation, it is hard to expect a bright future for their children in this country.”

Throughout the Covid-19 lockdown period spanning from 2020 to 2022, the younger generation bore direct witness to the collapse of the myth of the republic. In March 2022, the central government ordered ++a three-month lockdown++ of entire Shanghai. As the most economically developed municipality, with the most advanced logistics chain, Shanghai unexpectedly experienced shortages of food and basic supplies. Tragic secondary disasters have resulted from the lockdown measures, including the closure of hospitals, the deprivation of treatment for patients with other illnesses, the isolation of neonates, and the demise of grassroots workers due to overwork. China Digital Times statistics indicate that ++over a hundred people++ have died from secondary disasters. This is not an isolated case. In September, the government forcibly transported COVID-19 patients to meet policy targets, ++resulting in 27 fatalities.++ In November, a fire broke out in a residential area in Urumqi, Xinjiang. However, due to lockdown policies, fire trucks were unable to enter the area for rescue, ++resulting in ten fatalities++. All these instances are countless. During this period, the internet had a popular slogan: “++We are the last generation.”++

The classic Chinese literary work contains a memorable line. Faced with the atrocities committed by the Japanese occupation forces, an elderly person says, “They can kill, but we can give birth.” However, nowadays, people are shouting, “We are the last generation.” The backgrounds behind these two sentences, fundamentally, are so similar—they both reflect the resistance of the oppressed under tyranny.

Present-day youth in China are confronted with an economic environment of stagnation, a workplace with shrinking upward mobility, and an intrusive government that encroaches upon personal lives. In the current societal context, where welfare is lacking and the cost of child-rearing burdens individuals, especially women, choosing between offspring and quality of life has ironically become a binary choice. How many people would be willing to invest effort into nurturing the next generation under such circumstances? Perhaps the only thing that disillusioned individuals can do is to refrain from bringing innocent lives into this world anymore.